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Acting Now for Better Health: A 30% Target for EU Climate

Summary

This report sets out new evidence of how higher targets on greenhouse gas emission reductions in the European Union, as part of policy to mitigate climate change, would bring about health gains for Member States and European citizens.

This report sets out new evidence of how higher targets on greenhouse gas emission reductions in the European Union, as part of policy to mitigate climate change, would bring about health gains for Member States and European citizens.

The health benefits resulting from the implementation of climate policy occur because as emissions fall, reductions in certain other air pollutants (fine particles, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide associated with power generation and transport) also take place. As a consequence, the ambient air is healthier and the incidence of respiratory and cardiac disease, associated with exposure to polluted air, falls. Since these conditions are both major contributors to morbidity and mortality in Europe, the impact is very significant both for the health of the population and in slowing the upward trend in health care budgets.

The report is timely because EU Member States are currently discussing the European Union's position on climate policy. The EU has currently a 20% target on reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. A move to a 30% reduction target is supported by several countries and discussions on how to go about this may take place at either the Environment Council meeting on 14 October or even the Heads of State and Governments Council meeting on 28-29 October. The EU is also preparing for the Cancun international climate change negotiations in Mexico in December 2010.

What are the findings?

The report quantifies the health benefits of cleaner air associated with moving to a 30% emissions reduction target. Calculations are made for both 30% "with flexibility", which is what the European Commission calls "30%", and the more ambitious 30% internal target, which does not allow offsetting in third countries. The latter would bring considerably higher health benefits for Europe.

The report:

• Calculates the savings in the EU due to ill-health as well as loss of life
• Provides the first-ever figures for health benefits per Member State, including detailed figures for eight countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the UK)
• Compares health benefits with the costs of implementing the 30% target
• Demonstrates that immediate action on climate policy would produce more benefits than if the changes were delayed

The findings in figures

EU health cost savings: If the European Union shows l leadership by stepping up its current 20% target in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (from 1990 levels) to a 30% domestic target, the additional benefits will total up to €30.5 billion per year by 2020 (as a result of the commitment to the extra mitigation effort). (Our analysis follows the approach of the European Commission in estimating costs and health benefits as "per year in 2020").

In its May 2010 Communication, the European Commission estimates health benefits at up to €16.7 billion. This figure relates only to loss of life associated with exposure to air quality. The review's estimate is considerably higher because it takes into account morbidity (ill-health) as well as mortality. The additional costs in the study estimate are related to cases of chronic bronchitis, cardiac and respiratory hospital admissions, restricted activity days due to poor air quality, consultations for asthma and upper respiratory symptoms and days of respiratory medication use by adults and children. (See Table 2, Technical section of the report).

If the EU were to move to a 30% internal target, the savings of €30.5 billion in health costs avoided in 2020 would be in addition to the public health benefits anticipated in association with the current EU 20% target on emission reductions estimated at €52 billion per year in 2020.

Member State health cost savings: Cost savings of a 30% target in greenhouse gas emissions for eight Member States are as follows:

Health benefits per year by 2020 (upper estimate)
Germany €8.1 billion
Poland €4.0 billion
France €3.5 billion
Italy €3.4 billion
Netherlands €1.1 billion
Belgium €0.9 billion
Spain €0.9 billion
UK €0.9 billion
Other EU countries €7.7 billion
Total (All EU countries) €30.5 billion

A breakdown of the effects that contribute to the national costs shown above can be found in the tables in the report's appendix.

While the above eight countries take the greatest share of the benefits, some countries, such as Luxembourg, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary, have higher health benefits per capita. (Figures are available on request)

Comparison with climate change policy implementation costs: The health gains measured in the study represent only the tip of the iceberg of overall benefits. They do not take into account the wider impacts of climate change on health caused by phenomena such as heat-weaves, floods, droughts and reduced food production. Nor do they take into account a raft of other health co-benefits, such as the health savings associated with climate policy to reduce private car use and promote more walking and cycling, which would improve fitness and reduce cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer and depression.

Nevertheless, the estimates of savings are significant compared to costs of implementing the rise to a 30% target. The European Commission's Communication put the additional costs of the 30% internal target at €46 billion by 2020, or 0.3% of GDP. This compares with our estimates of health benefits of up to €30.5 billion.

Similarly, the European Commission estimates the costs of moving to a 30% "flexible" target – the one to which the Commission most frequently refers - at €33 billion. This compares with our study estimate on savings of up to €14.6 billion.

Early action doubles benefits: The study also shows that acting immediately on climate policy will produce greater benefits for health. As an illustration, the report includes a chart comparing the cumulative benefits predicted for 2020 as a result of acting now as opposed to starting action in 2015. It shows that the benefits are 250% higher if the move to the 30% internal target takes place immediately rather than after a delay of five years. If action starts today the cumulative benefits are estimated at up to €163 billion compared with up to €63 billion if action starts in 2015.

About the figures: The technical report is the work of Dr Michael Holland, EMRC, UK. He is an independent consultant who has worked for both the European Commission and UN/ECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Convention) on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution on similar cost-benefit studies. In September 2008, he produced a less detailed report for HEAL and others entitled Co-benefits of stronger climate change policy report. In the new report, he shows that the previous study for HEAL underestimated – rather than exaggerated - the health benefits of strong climate change policy.

Quotes from experts:

Medical perspective

"Doctors have been too timid about highlighting the risks to human health from rises in greenhouse gases. This report gives them an opportunity to put the health-based case and show that an investment now can achieve a quick return for health."

"Circulatory and respiratory diseases are a major cause of ill health in Europe. Approximately 230,000 people die prematurely each year as a result of exposure to air pollution would die prematurely following exposure to air pollution, with associated costs equivalent of 1.5-4% of EU GDP."

Dr Michael Wilks, Climate Adviser and Immediate Past President of the Standing Committee of European Doctors (CPME).

The Standing Committee of European Doctors (CPME) aims to promote the highest standards of medical training and medical practice in order to achieve the highest quality of health care for all patients in Europe. CPME is also concerned with the promotion of public health, the relationship between patients and doctors and the free movement of doctors within the European Union.

CPME is the representative organisation of over 1,3 million European doctors through its full members, the most representative National Medical Associations of 27 countries in Europe. CPME works closely together with its other members, four National Medical Associations from associated and observer countries as well as with specialized European medical associations.

Patients' perspective

"Stronger climate action means reductions in greenhouse gases and cleaner air, and is a welcome breath of fresh air for Europe's 30 million people with asthma. For any family with asthma or other chronic respiratory disease, this means fewer days on which they must stay at home because pollution levels makes it difficult for them to breathe outside. "

The report quantifies the number of days of restricted activity that could be avoided per year by 2020 if the EU moved from its existing target of a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to a 30% internal (domestic) target. For example, the EU as a whole, there would more than 13 million fewer days of restricted activity among the working age population. Figures for eight Member States are included in the Appendix 1 of the report.

"Clean air is very important to anyone with a respiratory condition. This report helps make the climate link and provides compelling evidence of how important tackling climate change is within the prevention agenda of patients' groups representing those with asthma, allergies and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). "

Susanna Palkonen, European Federation of Allergy and Airways Diseases Patients Associations (EFA)

The European Federation of Allergy and Airways Diseases Patients Associations (EFA) is a European network of allergy, asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patient organizations.

More information from:

Dr Pendo Maro, Senior Climate and Energy Advisor, Health Care Without Harm (HCWH) and Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL) tel: + 32 2234 3647 Mobile: +32 495 281 494. Email: pendo.maro@hcwh.org; pendo@env-health.org

Diana Smith, Communications and Media, tel: +33 1 55 25 25 84 Mobile: +33 6 33 04 2943 Email: diana@env-health.org